Saturday, 27 October 2018

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Day Trading Support/ Resistance

Day Trading using support / resistance is one of the best ways to consistently beat the market.

Support/Resistance is one of the most used tools in trading and is likely to be around forever. This is because support / resistance is based on human psychology which is never going to change
Support/Resistance is one of the most important fundamentals in trading. We use it for stop loss placement, trailing stop loss, profit target, entries and even trend analysis. We use support/resistance so much in trading that we sometimes do not even realize that we use it.
There are different types of support/resistances. We believe it is important to know the different types so we dont miss those levels when trading. Going short just above support or long just below resistance is not a smart move in trading. But here are the different types of support/resistance:
·         Swing High/Low
·         What were support becomes resistance and vice versa
·         Gap Fill
·         Moving Average
·         Prior Day High/Low
·         Round Numbers
Everyone have to keep in mind that Support and Resistance are regions. That means price can break through it and bounce just below support or above resistance. It is better to keep an eye on price to see what happens at these powerful levels before entering the trade or exiting the trade.
If price breaks support just briefly and then comes back with a retribution it could set up a powerful rally. What this normally signals is that the downtrend is over as there are no sellers left now. The opposite is true if price breaks resistance and comes downs right after. This signals a fake break new to high due to lack of new buyers.


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How to use Stop loss and Trailing Stop loss
Using stop loss is the most important thing in trading. It is not the entry or the target that should have trader's primary focus.

There are 2 general tips where the first is always use stops. First One is, If trader do not have a stop loss in and the trade goes against them might end up losing everything as they freeze and just watch the trade goes further and further against them until they cannot take more and exit the position. By having a hard stop loss in they are avoiding them self from ending.

Second One is never moves trader’s stop further away from the entry. If traders do, traders can end up losing their entire account while waiting for the stock to bounce. When traders have placed their stop loss the only way they are allowed to move the stop loss is with the trade as it goes their way. Never increase the stop loss, only decrease it.
There Are  Different Stop loss Used In Trading
Volatility Stop loss - Uses Average True Range (ATR) or a similar calculation to determine where trader should place their stop loss. Does price move beyond the Average True Range then trader’s stop loss is hit. This makes sense as normally a move beyond ATR signals a trend change in the market.
Last Pivot High/Low - This is what traders also call swing high or low. This is another great place to set their stop loss or trailing stop loss. These pivot points shows where buyers or sellers last came in and if that level is break is can signal a trend change.
X Bars High/Low - A very easy to follow but yet useful trailing stop loss is the X bars high/low. If traders are short their trailing stop loss would be placed above the X bar high and if traders were long their trailing stop loss would below X bar low. This trailing stop loss is especially popular among scalpers as they need a trailing stop that moves just as fast as price.
Point or Percent - If traders are trading one particular stock or future and investor trade the same strategy again and again then traders quickly get an idea what stock/future normally moves and by knowing that traders can place a stop loss based on point or percent. A very simply stop loss and trailing stop loss but none the less effective.
Moving Average - Using a Moving Average as a stop loss is not always the best choice as it is lagging. If price moves very fast then it can actually be even more lagging. However there are some benefits to using a Moving Average as stop loss or trailing stop loss and that is it sometimes leaves enough for traders to trail their trade.
Reverse Of Entry Signal - This is a slight alternative stop loss or trailing stop loss but there are some traders using it. The stop loss is trigger if the opposite of trader’s entry signal occurs. For example if the trade is a crossover of Stochastic to the downside then trader’s exit would be a cross over to the upside.


Sunday, 21 October 2018

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Why is Stock Chart Technical Analysis Important?


When analysis comes to investing in stocks, it is important that the investor is capable of conducting a thorough technical analysis of stock charts. Technical analysis is a term used to define the process of predicting future price movements based on the past price movements within stock charts. It is acting with the help of technical analysis that traders are able to make financial decisions of buy or sell stocks. Even though technical analysis doesn’t make accurate predictions, it helps trader to predict the future. If trader is willing to invest in a stock, they will first select a stock and analyze its past price fluctuations to see whether it will tender successful results in the future or not.

Past and Current Stock Price Prediction
The principle of technical analysis is to help the investor to make a more financially sound investment decision. The price is the key to success in stock market investment. The supply and demand of stocks all depend upon technical analysis. By estimating the history of stock prices, trader gets a future reading of what a particular stock would be priced at.
When analyzing the stock charts, trader can create price charts that help decide their next move. With the help of technical analysis, traders are able to identify the following factors:
§  Volatility in the stock prices in the past and present.
§  Stock’s capability and value compared to the overall market
§  Price fluctuations and stock value before and after important events.
§  History of volume and trading levels.
Easily Identify Support and Resistance Levels
By executing stock chart technical analysis, investors are able to predict support and resistance levels. These levels find the periods of congestion in a stock chart where the prices of stocks fluctuate within a limited range for a long period of time.
When traders are able to identify support and resistance levels, traders can make better conclusion whether to invest in a particular stock or not. When prices break the obstruction, it means that the supply and demand are in a good position.
Helps Time Entry Points
Another benefit of stock chart technical analysis is that it helps investors’ time entry points. With the help of technical analysis, investors know exactly when to time their accomplishment. Investors are also able to understand demand and supply levels, and breakouts to make better decisions. Buying close to support levels or a breakout above resistance helps to investors earn greater returns on their investment.
Easily Spot Trends
If traders want to invest in stocks, they must be well attentive of the current market trends. By conducting technical analysis of stock charts, investors will be able to gain the knowledge about short term and long term trends which will help traders to take informed investment decisions.
 In order to invest in stocks, traders must be attentive of the historical and current stock trends and price fluctuations. And with the help of technical analysis, you get all the information investors need to make a perfect decision that doesn’t make their lose money.


Sunday, 7 October 2018

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Financial Ratios
There are a number of widely used financial ratios that can be used to help investors gauge valuation and assess how a company stacks up against its peers. These ratios are standard on broker platforms as well as most popular search engines. Just as with technical analysis, financial analysis should be performed using multiple financial ratios to help paint a clearer picture of the operations.

Price-Earnings (P/E) is perhaps the most commonly used financial ratio. It measures the profitability of the company relative to the share price. All sectors have an average P/E, which can be found quickly by looking up the heaviest traded exchange-traded-funds (ETF) which track the specific index. This ratio can be used to compare a specific company with the industry, peers and or benchmark indices. For example, if the consumer discretionary sector has a P/E of 20 and your stock has a P/E of 55, it may be overvalued. Some sectors traditionally have higher P/Es than others, like technology compared to utilities. The S&P 500 has a historical P/E ratio of 21. Keep in mind that a company needs to generate profits in order to have a P/E. There are more ratios that can be used in the absence of profits.

Price-Sales (P/S) and Price-Book (P/B) are comparative valuation ratios that indicate if a stock is trading at a premium or discount compared to its peers and sector/industry. If a stock is trading at a very deep discount like .3 P/S compared to industry average of 2.5 P/S, then there could be an inherent structural problem with the business or could be overlooked by Wall Street and presents an undervalued investment situation and warrants further investigation.

Cash-Per-Share (CPS) and Book Value (BV) are two valuation ratios that can help determine if the stock has been overly punished by investors. When a company trades under the CPS or BV, it has virtually valued the business operations at zero presenting either a very undervalued situation or potential bankruptcy. The cash burn rate and debt should also be investigated. Biotech stocks are notorious for these situations. These ratios don’t apply well to financials like banks and insurance companies that tend to trade at or below CPS and BV, due to federal banking regulations and off balance sheet entities.


Saturday, 6 October 2018

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Basics of Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis requires information provided by the company to develop a thesis about the business. These are some of the factors that should be included in the thesis.
Understand a Company’s Real Value
Observation is reality in the financial markets. Different investors and analysts will have differing valuations for a company. However, the continued declining sales forecasts caused the sector to drop, when the earnings reports revealed even larger revenue declines, as discernment shifted negative again.

Outlook Influences Discernment
The markets are the ultimate arbitrator and adjudicators as to which valuation pricing prevails and when. Outlook influences discernment, which is why stocks tend to overshoot their valuations in strong bullish markets and undershoots during weak bearish markets, fundamental analysts will work to develop their own valuation models using specialized metrics to calibrate them to any mechanisms. Companies can be valued based on financial metrics as well as assets that may not be efficiently priced in. The parts are worth more than the whole is a common validation for under valuation, which assumes that the company may follow up or sell certain assets to improve shareholder equity.

Reading Financial Statements
Publicly traded companies are required to file financial statements with the United Stated Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Investors can access this information directly from the SEC through the EDGAR database.
Quarterly earnings are initially revealed and filed as a 10-K document afterwards. Companies will usually pair the earnings release with a conference call an hour afterwards or the next morning. The conference call can be very disclosing, especially future earnings guidance estimates which may be increased or decrease from consensus analyst estimates, regulatory issues, impending proceedings and most important indenture wins or loses, which can result in significant share price volatility

Understanding Industry Trends
Stocks are segmented by sector and industry. To determine the true performance of a stock, it should be evaluated amongst its competitors within the industry. When a particular sector or industry is very strong, it tends to lift most of the companies within. The privileges in the particular industry usually establish the industry trend. Therefore, it is cautious to continue alongside each other of the industry trends for the particular stocks. The performance of the industry leaders sets the outlook with the group. When a leading stock in the heavy machinery industry lacerates its earnings guidance, it generates a top-down undulation effect for the examiner stocks as well. It is guilt by association until demonstrated otherwise as share prices sell-off.

 Accounting for Company Growth
There are two types of accounting that is used with earnings reports. The official numbers are reported under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which take into account all expenditure items including non-cash compensation like restricted stock and options. Companies like to also provide non-GAAP numbers, which excludes non-cash items. The purpose is to allow shareholders to better estimate the growth of the core business without being sidetracked by factors that doesn’t affect cash flow. However, opponents argue that non-GAAP accounting is misleading. Any and all compensation must be accounted for especially when existing shareholders face further strength in shareholder equity.


Monday, 1 October 2018

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Importance of Technical Analysis:

Technical analysis is increasing popularity worldwide. Here are some of the reasons why it is so important to the analysis of financial markets: 

MATHEMATICAL APPROACH:

Technical analysts use probability to pick stocks. By using probability, they are able to predict the outcome of an action without necessarily needing to scrutinize it. So, technical analysis predicts that how prices are going to move without requiring bothering that will cause the price to move. It is much quicker and less difficult than fundamental analysis.

SIGNS OF UPCOMING RISK:

Sometimes, a main fall in stock prices is just around the corner but nobody can see it coming. Fundamental analysis tools are unable to predict it. However, by using historical chart patterns and other technical tools, one can predict the fall. Now generally, technical analysis cannot predict the reason for the fall, but it can predict that it is about to come. However, technical analysts predicted beforehand that markets are about to enter one of the biggest falls ever.

IDENTIFICATION OF SHORT-TERM TRENDS:

Fundamental analysis is more relevant for investors who want to invest for a long period of say three to five years or more. This is because any profitable business model takes time to be successful. This is not so with technical analysis. Eventually, the success of a stock depends on the company’s profitability. This cannot be predicted by technical analysis. It can only predict whether the stock is going to move up or down in the near future. In the short term, however, fundamental factors can only have a small effect on prices. In such cases, technical analysis presents a clearer identification.