Sunday, 30 September 2018

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Importance of Technical Analysis:

Technical analysis is increasing popularity worldwide. Here are some of the reasons why it is so important to the analysis of financial markets: 

MATHEMATICAL APPROACH:

Technical analysts use probability to pick stocks. By using probability, they are able to predict the outcome of an action without necessarily needing to scrutinize it in great detail. So, technical analysis predicts that how prices are going to move without requiring bothering that will cause the price to move. It is much quicker and less difficult than fundamental analysis.

SIGNS OF UPCOMING RISK:

Sometimes, a main fall in stock prices is just around the corner but nobody can see it coming. Fundamental analysis tools are unable to predict it. However, by using historical chart patterns and other technical tools, one can predict the fall. Now generally, technical analysis cannot predict the reason for the fall, but it can predict that it is about to come. However, technical analysts predicted beforehand that markets are about to enter one of the biggest falls ever.

IDENTIFICATION OF SHORT-TERM TRENDS:

Fundamental analysis is more relevant for investors who want to invest for a long period of say three to five years or more. This is because any profitable business model takes time to be successful. So, investors too have to remain patient. This is not so with technical analysis. Eventually, the success of a stock depends on the company’s profitability. This cannot be predicted by technical analysis. It can only predict whether the stock is going to move up or down in the near future. In the short term, however, fundamental factors can only have a small effect on prices. In such cases, technical analysis presents a clearer identification.


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Technical indicators are used to identify market trends and predict future stock prices. 



They are:

CHARTS:

Price and volume charts are the most representative tools that are used as technical indicators for technical analysis. A volume chart represents the number of shares of a company that were bought and sold in the market during a day. 

For the principle of technical analysis, we may choose one of the conventional line or bar charts, or alternatively, use a candlestick chart. A candlestick chart is a special kind of chart that is particularly relevant for technical analysis. It is in the form of a series of consecutive candles. Charts are used together with trend lines. Trend lines are used to indicate the direction of movement of a stock over a period of time.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:

Momentum indicators are statistical stature that are calculated based on price and volume data of stocks. These technical indicators act as supporting tools to charts and moving averages.
Some momentum indicators are signs that occur before the price move we expected occurs. They substantiate that the price is certainly going to move as we thought it would. These are called leading indicators. Other signs come after the stock has started moving in a particular direction. They are called lagging indicators. They corroborate that the stock will continue moving in this direction. Indicators are also used together with moving averages. For example, when a stock price moves in such a way that it starts falling within a moving average, it is an assenting sign that it will continue to move as expected. This is called a crossover. Other momentum indicators include moving average convergence divergence (MACD), accumulation/distribution line.

MOVING AVERAGES:

Moving averages are calculated to remove sharp, frequent fluctuations in a stock chart. From the time to time, stock prices can move very sharply in a small period of time. This formulates it rigid to determine a trend in the stock chart. To remove the impact of this, and make a trend more important, an average of a few days price is calculated. For example, if a five day pattern of a stock’s price is Rs.49, 54, 46, 48 and 51, it is difficult to find the direction in which prices have actually moved. However, if we can calculate the average of these prices and compare them with the average of the next five days and the previous five days, we can determine a broad trend.  This kind of moving average is called simple moving average (SMA). Other generally used moving average concepts are exponential moving average (EMA) and linear weighted average (LWA)

Saturday, 29 September 2018

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Fundamentals of Technical Analysis:

In order to make use of technical analysis for predicting stock prices, we have to presume that there is some relationship between historical chart patterns and future stock prices. In this way we can use historical data to predict future prices. There are three fundamental hypotheses in the technical analysis of stocks. 

They are:

MARKET PRICES REFLECT ALL THE INFORMATION ABOUT A STOCK:

Fundamental Analysis anxiety itself with financial and other information about a stock. Technical analysis of stocks, though completely separated from fundamental analysis, works on a similar basis. Technical Indicators actually indicates use this information when making buy or sell decisions. This information subsequently gets reflected in the stock’s price and ultimately the stock chart..

PATTERNS TEND TO REPEAT THEMSELVES:

The chart pattern that validates a technical analysis is that trends are repetitive. In other words, suppose a stock chart moves in a hypothetical pattern. Based on technical analysis, in this way to tell where the price will go next by simply looking at a chart.

STOCK PRICES FOLLOW TRENDS:

Technical analysis of stocks is based on the idea that each stock chart has its own unique trend. Prices move only within this trend. Every move in the stock price will indicate the next move.

Similarly, even for stock charts, we know the trend from past experiences. Basically, the move in either direction may be larger or smaller than before. However, the pattern of these charts will not change dramatically.



Sunday, 23 September 2018

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Technical Indicators in Stock Market:

Data points plotted on a chart helps to look at the direction of stock prices, but deeper analysis requires more data crunching. Trends can be visually tracked with indicators like moving averages, which are dynamic lines that connect each period’s closing (last) price. Charting or trading platforms enable users to manually draw in their own trend lines directly onto their charts. Different traders may have different trend lines based on the time frame of the chart as well as the starting point.

 

Price indicators

 

Indicators that output price-based information like trends, support and resistance are price indicators. They are usually displayed and tracked on the price segment of a chart, usually the upper chart. Moving averages, candlesticks/bars/lines, pivot points, three line break and bars are all popular price indicators. Trend lines and trend channels are either manually or automatically drawn are strong price indicators as well.

 

Momentum indicators


Indicators that measure the momentum of a stock including overbought and oversold conditions are momentum indicators. Basic momentum indicators come pre-programmed in most charting or trading platforms. These indicators help traders to better time their entries and exits. When properly used, traders are able to avoid pursuing prices when momentum indicators show overbought conditions like a stochastic peaking and falling back. While price is important, understanding how the price level is achieved can be just as significant. Stochastic Index, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are three widely used momentum indicators.
Using a combination of price and momentum indicators can help generate effective entry and exit signals. The knowledge of successful trading utilizes the technical indicators to generate high probability set-ups with prudent disciplined trade management. Technical indicators optimize the process of price analysis.


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Technical Analysis



Technical analysis is the understanding of the price action of a company’s underlying stock. It utilizes various charts and statistical indicators to determine price support and resistance, range and trends. It identifies historically relevant price patterns and performance to help forecast potential direction of the stock. This methodology focuses only on the price of the shares, not the operations of the company.

How Does Technical Analysis Work:


By using historical price data, technical analysis attempts to interpret the supply and demand that moves share prices. Technical analysis visually trails the activity of the stocks using various charts and indicators to pinpoint price areas of strong interest both in terms of buying and selling. History tends to repeat itself as confirmed by price patterns.
Anyone who trades or invests in the stock market or any other tradable financial instrument should consider learning at least a basic level of technical analysis. Technical analysis will help trader make better-informed decisions as to how much risk to employ for how much potential reward.
Stocks represent the underlying company’s business and operations. However, the discernment and future valuation of the company and its performance is reflected into its stock price. There is often a divergence between the two. Technical analysis also helped to determine where the divergence lies and how much opportunity may exist.

Basics of Technical Analysis:

Technical analysis rivets and utilizes various tools and indicators. The tools can be used to generate converging signals that improve the probability of a direction price move.

Stock Charts:


Technical analysis seeks to construe the part of a stock’s price action. The general types of charts are candlestick, bar and line charts. Charts plot the prices where trades have been executed. The time interval of the chart can be specified through the settings. Time intervals segment the price action of the stock. For a 5-minute candlestick chart, each candle represents a five minute segment of trading that record the starting price (open), the highest price (high), lowest price (low) and last price (close) trade during the period. As the five minute handle ends, it will display a candlestick that details the four data points (open, high, low, close) and a fifth data point that summarizes the opening and closing price and colors the body red if the last trade (close) is lower than the first trade (open), or green if the last trade (close) has a higher price than the first trade (open). Bar charts include the same information without coating the body. Line charts simply connect the closing price only for each time period.


Support and Resistance

By visually marking the charts, users can see certain price levels that tend to prevent prices from falling any further before rising back up again. These are known as price support levels. Users will also spot price levels that continue to provide a ceiling, those eventually causing prices to fall back down again after testing. These are known as price resistance levels.


Stock Volume

Volume measures the total number of shares traded for a specified period of time. It is used as a measure of interest that can obvious into significant price action. High volume indicates significant trading activity that triggers a breakout or a breakdown accompanied by a sustaining trend in prices. Breakouts result in higher trending prices and breakdowns result in lower trending prices. When volume is low, stocks tend to split around in a range known as consolidation.

Trends

Trends indicate the current direction of share prices. When stock prices continue to rise higher, it is considered to be in an uptrend and vice versa for a downtrend. Up trends indicate increasing demand for shares, as buyers are willing to pay higher prices as supply diminishes. Downtrends represent an oversupply of shares with waning buying interest resulting in falling prices. By connecting the various high and low points on a chart, you can manually generate trend lines that pinpoint support and resistance and direction of stock prices. When compared to historical templates of similar trend lines, you may be able to forecast the future direction, revolving points and targets.





Saturday, 15 September 2018

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Implied Volatility Ratio:

Volatility is a financial measurement that enlighten investors the degree to which a stock's price changes. Stocks with low volatility are constant, usually better, blue-chip companies, while high-volatility stocks change in price and can be risky and worthwhile for investors. Implied volatility and beta both portray features of a stock's volatility. Implied volatility measures investor response about the future performance of a stock, while beta compares a stock price's changes beside the rest of the market to give perspective on the stock's performance. Online brokerages provide information on a stock's beta and implied volatility measurements.

Implied Volatility In Stock Options:
Beta is the measurement of a stock's returns when compared with all the other stocks in a market. Beta is a historical measurement and is usually measured against a stock index, commonly the S&P 500 index. The ratio is expressed as a decimal. If a stock has a beta of 1.0, it means the price increase or decrease at the same rate as the market. It is most frequently used by options traders to measures how much a stock will rise or fall.

Finding the Implied Volatility:
Implied volatility is a measurement of how much the market supposed a stock price will change in the future. It is primarily used by options traders to help moderate the fair price of an option, which investors use to speculate on the future prices of stocks or to add protection to their portfolio by hedging their investments. An option is a contract between investors to buy shares of stock at a particular strike price at a future expiry date. Investors trade these option contracts for a price called a premium that is negotiated between the ‘ask’ and ‘bid’ price. Because these contracts are open, the true value is not yet known, and investors use implied volatility to help set a price for options.

Measuring Implied Volatility:
Implied volatility is articulated as a percentage, is usually measured at an annual rate and enlightens investors what the market expects to happen to the stock price. While implied volatility measures a stock's anticipated changes, it doesn't forecast whether that stock's price will rise or fall, only by how much it will move.

Volatility Index:

Investors can also track implied volatility for the market by following the Chicago Board of Exchange's volatility index. By measuring the 30-day implied volatility of all the stocks in the S&P 500, the Volatility Index measures investor opinion and is sometimes called the fear index. According to Scot trade, a Volatility Index of below 20 is low, which shows a stable market where investors are more likely to buy stocks. A high Volatility level of 25 or above means investors could ember a sell-off.



Friday, 14 September 2018

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What does Beta measures in Stock Market?


Beta is an important factor in stock market analysis. It measures the correlation of a stock versus an index or the market as a whole. Beta also integrates the volatility of a stock or an entire portfolio, providing valuable data to investors and analysts. Beta indicates either a positive or negative correlation, along with the degree or intensity of the correlation or lack thereof.
Correlation

Measuring correlation, whether positive or negative, helps investors select, keep or sell individual stocks. Positive correlation indicates that a stock moves with the overall market or the index against which it is measured. Negative correlation advises that an individual stock tends to move opposite the market or the index. When the market moves up, the stock price moves down if it displays negative correlation. This is articulated as a beta of -1. Positive correlation, a stock price increasing as the market increases, or goes down when the market declines, has a beta of 1.
Volatility

When include the component of volatility, a stock might have a beta greater than 1. Even if the stock has a positive correlation with the market, if it is volatile, with extensive ‘swings’ up or down, investor might spectator a stock with a beta higher than 1. A less volatile security, even when moving with the market, could result in a beta less than 1. A highly volatile stock, with theatrical price changes, that has negative correlation could have a higher negative result.
Significance

Beta, measuring correlation and volatility, is neither good nor bad. It does give investors valuable information about individual securities. For example, if trader prefer stocks that move with the Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) and have low volatility, investor can find them. On the Contrary, should trader’s curiosity lie in securities that move opposite market trends, trader will find those factors.
Investment Decisions

Some stocks are naturally volatile, usually because the corporations, particularly retailers, knowledge frequent revenue peaks and valleys. Other securities tend to sneak, with few theatrical highs or lows. Some stocks authentically follow the market. When the market is up, they are up; when the stock market is down, they are in down trend. Beta measurements use historical data to predict future events. Beta has no inclinations.
Risk

The beta bottom line is that it measures risk between a stock and the market. Beta is not infallible. For example, a 1.2 beta for a security indicates that it will move, up or down, 1.2 times the historical market move. Depending on trader’s investment strategy. Beta delivers valuable information about the risk of profit or loss for the investments traders have.

Sunday, 2 September 2018

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Types Of Stocks:

In Sock Market, Aside from the private/public distinction, there are two types of stock that companies can issue: common stock and preferred stock.

Common Stock

Traders are preferred about stocks they are usually referring to common stock. In fact, the great preponderance of stock is issued is in this form. Common shares represent the preserve on profits (dividends).

Over the long term, common stock, by means of capital growth has tended to yield higher returns the corporate bonds. This higher return comes at a cost, however, since common stocks necessitate the most risk including the potential to lose the entire amount invested if a company goes out of business. 

If a company goes bankrupt and liquidates, the common shareholders will not receive money until the creditors, bondholders and preferred shareholders are paid.


Preferred Stock


Preferred stock functions similarly to bonds, and usually doesn't come with the voting rights-this may vary depending on the company, but in many cases preferred shareholders do not have any voting rights. With preferred shares, investors are usually guaranteed a fixed dividend in eternity. This is different from common stock which has variable dividends that are declared by the board of directors and never guaranteed. 

In fact, many companies do not pay out dividends to common stock at all. One more advantage is that in the event of liquidation, preferred shareholders are paid off before the common shareholder. 
Preferred stock may also be “callable,” meaning that the company has the option to re-purchase the shares from preferred shareholders at any time for any reason. An instinctive way to consider these kinds of shares is to see them as being somewhat in between bonds and common shares.

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Different Types of Stocks:


When a company is first founded, the only shareholders are the co-founders and early investors. For example, if a startup has two founders and one investor, each may own one-third of the company’s shares. 

As the company grows and needs more capital to expand, it may issue more of its shares to other investors, so that the original founders may end up with a significantly lower percentage of shares than they started with. During this stage, the company and its shares are considered private. In most cases, private shares are not easily exchanged, and the number of shareholders is typically small.

As the company continues to grow, however, there often comes a end where early investors become eager to sell their shares and monetize the profits of their early investments. At the same time, the company itself may need more investment than the small number of private investors can offer. At this point, the company considers an IPO (Initial Public Offering), transforming it from a private to a public company. 

Saturday, 1 September 2018

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Common Active Trading Strategies:

Day Trading 


Day Trading is possibly the most well-known active trading style. It's frequently considered a pseudonym for active trading itself. Day trading, as its name implies, is the method of buying and selling securities within the same day itself. Positions are closed out within the same day what traders are taken, and no position is held overnight. Conventionally, day trading is done by professional traders, such as specialists or market makers. However electronic trading has opened up this perform to novice (beginner) traders.

Position Trading

Some actually consider position trading to be a buy and hold strategy and not active trading. However, position trading, when done by a sophisticated trader, can be a form of active trading. Position trading uses longer term charts – anywhere from daily to monthly – in combination with other methods to determine the trend of the current market direction. This type of trade may last for several days to several weeks and sometimes longer, depending on the trend.
Trend traders look for succeeding higher highs or lower highs to determine the trend of a security. By jumping on and riding the wave, trend traders aim to benefit from both the up and downside of market movements. Trend traders look to determine the direction of the market, but they don’t try to predict any price levels. Classically, trend traders jump on the trend after it has recognized itself, and when the trend breaks, they usually exit the position. This means that in periods of high market volatility, trend trading is more difficult and its positions are generally reduced.

Swing Trading

When a trend breaks, swing traders classically get in market. At the end of a trend, there is usually some price volatility as the new trend tries to recognize itself. Swing traders buy or sell as that price volatility sets in. Swing trades are usually held for more than a day but for a shorter time than trend trades. Swing traders often create a set of trading rules based on technical analysis or fundamental analysis.
These trading rules or algorithms are designed to identify when to buy and sell a security. While a swing-trading algorithm does not have to be exact and predict the peak of a price move, it does need a market that moves in one direction or another. A range bound or sideways market is a risk for swing traders.

Scalping

Scalping is one of the quickest strategies engaged by active traders. It includes exploiting various price gaps caused by bid-ask spreads and order flows. The strategy generally works by making the spread or buying at the bid price and selling at the ask price to receive the difference between the two price points. Scalpers attempt to hold their positions for a short period, thus decreasing the risk correlated with the strategy.