Sunday, 26 August 2018

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Why is the Stock Market So Difficult to Predict?

Stock Valuation:

The actual price of a stock is determined by market activity. When making the decision to buy or sell, the shareholder will frequently compare a stock’s actual price to its fair value. For example, if the stock is trading at 20 per share and its fair value is 25, it may be worth buying. On the Contrary, if it trades at 20 but its fair value is 15, the stock would be considered overvalued and the trader would be wise to avoid it. Stock’s fair value would be based on some standardized formula. However, there are many ways to derive this term. 

One method is to merge the value of a company’s assets on its balance sheet, minus downgrading and liabilities. Another is to determine its intrinsic value, which is the net present value of a company’s future earnings.  Because the methods yield a slightly different result, it’s sometimes difficult to know if a stock is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued. And even if it is overvalued, that doesn’t mean investors will suddenly sell and the price will fall. Actually, a stock can remain overvalued for moderate some time. This is also why it can be problematic to make buy/sell decisions based on where the price of the stock is in relation to some moving average.

Triggering Event:

Knowing which occurrence will cause a trend reversal is corresponding to seeing around the curve of a strong buy or sell of a stock.
The Decision Process:
This is the most important of the prediction. Inside every individual there is a logical and an emotional constituent. For example, when buying a car, we have to know the engine, fuel efficiency, facilities, or other items. When making investment decisions, since there is an shareholder on the other side ready to buy what trader selling what trader want to buy, shareholder must be able to process the relevant data and make a good decision. However, it’s impossible to know everything shareholder would need to know and process it without any bias.


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When is the Best Time to Buy and Sell?


The two most significant decisions an shareholders will make are when to buy and when to sell. The best time to buy is when others are pessimistic. The best time to sell is when others are actively optimistic. When buying, remember that the prospect of a high return is greater if trader buys after its price has fallen rather than after it has risen. But concern should be exercised. For example, after the stock of pretended Company A declined by 30%, 40% or more. We have to know that did other stocks in the same industry experience a decline and also we have to the entire stock market fall. 
If the broader market or other stocks in the same industry/sector performed relatively well, there may be a problem specific to Company A. It’s best to adopt a buy/sell discipline and adhere to it. The buyers of common stocks must assure them self that they are not making their acquire at a time when the general market level is a definitely high one, as arbitrator by established standards of common-stock values.

Monday, 20 August 2018

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What Makes Stock Prices Go Up and Down?


There are many features that established whether stock prices go up or down. These include the outlooks of well-known investors, ordinary adversities, political and social turbulence, risk, supply and demand, and the lack of or abundance of suitable choices. 

The compilation of these factors, plus all relevant information that has been distributed, creates a certain type of outlook [i.e. bullish and bearish] and the equivalent number of buyers and sellers. If there are more sellers than buyers, stock prices will tend to fall. On the Contrary, when there are more buyers than sellers, stock prices tend to rise.


Wednesday, 15 August 2018

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Stock Market Basics
Rule 1: Focus on Price
Knowledgeable traders follow a very different set of criteria. These traders focus on a single consideration: price. It may be a poorly run company but, if conditions call for a concise improvement in its price, it’s a good buy for the trader who knows when to get in and when to jump out for a quick profit. On the Contrary, a great company will sometimes climb out of its comfort zone to a price where suddenly there are more willing sellers than buyers. Price is about to fall, and it’s the short seller who will obtain the benefits.
Rule 2: Stay Liquid
If Trader interested in this much more practical view of stock market basics, here are some guidelines to know about. First, the stock has to be actively traded, at least 100,000 shares in daily volume. Below that level you run the risk of being stuck in a position simply because there are no traders on the other side. Second, you should stick to tickers with a price below $50 simply because the liquidity requirements above that level become distracting for most traders.
Rule 3: Practice Before You Enter In
Finally and most important, rather than investing in the broad market you should consider following a few tickers and getting to know their trading range very well. This is a stock market basics approach focusing on price, remember. Once the trader know where it “should” trade then trader will be well positioned to identify a depart from the standard and act quickly for a positive result. This is the opposite of “buy and hold” because trader may load up on a stock in the morning, dump it in the afternoon or a day or two days later, then buy it again when conditions change. It is an atheist approach to the markets in which the most important deliberation is your own desire to be successful.
Rule 4: Don't Try to Out-Think the Markets
A company in a sector has a bad quarter, or maybe a product recall, and all stocks in that sector declines even though the other companies have done nothing wrong. It is irrational but that is how the market works. Similarly, ordinary companies will go up in price when the market is blistering.
In this basis of the patented trading strategy, traders don’t need the markets to be logical. Trader simply wants to identify the zones where supply and demand are likely to be out of balance, then buy or sell when price enters these zones. There are large quantities of unfilled buy or sell orders at these price levels and, once the orders are filled, price will change direction regardless of what else is occurrence in the economy or the market.


Saturday, 11 August 2018

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Comparison of Future and Cash Segment Trading:

Definition

Most of the traders still don’t know that how to trade in Future, may be all traders are not interested; one of the reason may be due to high risk in the future segment. This term is about the difference between the Future and Cash Segment Trading.

Future Trading

In Cash Trading, one can buy any number of shares. In Futures, the trader buys a lot. The lot magnitude is set for every futures contract and it varies from stock to stock and also from company to company.

Margin Payment

Buying a Futures Contract one need not pay the entire value of the contract but just the margin. This margin sum is defined by the exchange. Let’s assume one buys a 1000 Futures contract of a particular company each share costing 50Rs. This will sum to Rs 50000. The trader need to pay only about 15% to 20% of that sum and this sum is called the margin amount. Assuming 15%, the trader need to pay Rs7500 and not 50K.

Cash Segment Trading:

Cash market trading is intended for the people who hope to buy shares with a purpose of taking transport of shares. They need to allocate the full sum towards the purchase of the shares at the time of placing order. This means that the trading account must have adequate funds to take care of the overall cost of the acquisition of the shares, brokerage and additional charges. These shares get carried to the investor’s account after the reimbursement process. The investor may trade the shares on the subsequent trading day, given that shares are not trade to trade segment. Under this term, the shares can be sold only after the receipt of the same.
Where the cash segment marks-

Sum differential
It is a value nothing that the charge of the shares in the cash segment is typically lower than the future price. So if its available for Rs50 in the Futures Segment, one should get it for Rs 48 in the cash segment.

Tax
In Futures, a trader needs to pay 33% tax on the profit. In equity its proportion of 10% (short term capital gains) if trading is done within a year and no tax if sold later a year (log term capital gains)

Elasticity in purchases
In the cash segment, one can pick up as many shares one wants starting from just one share. In futures, traders can’t buy less than the lot size prescribed. If required to buy more, traders can but it must be in multiples of the lot. So one to two contracts can be purchased.
How to make money

The trader purchases the share for Rs 50 each and the next day the share moves to Rs52. The divergence is Rs 2 per share. Hence the trader gets a credit Rs 2000- 2 per share*1000 shares.
The following day, it dips to Rs49. The difference is 1 Re per share. Since the price has dipped, Rs 1000- Re 1 per share *1000 shares is debited from the account. This will continue till trade the futures contract expires. So on daily basis money is gained or lost.
Can successfully short sell

When a trader sells shares without owing them, it is known as short selling. One would do so if it is believed that the value of the stock is going to drop. These ways traders sell it at a higher rate and buy it at a lower rate and eventually increasing to make huge profits.
Risks in Futures are higher
From an investors point of trader should invest in cash segment. Since Futures are the trading tool, the risk is also high to a large extent.
Where can a trader trade?
All stocks are not allowed for trading in derivatives. To check the list of stocks vacant for trading, traders can see in NSE websites. But to trade in futures, the trader will have to approach a broker who is authorized to trade in derivatives.







Wednesday, 1 August 2018

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Stock Share Price Vs Values

When the objective of the analysis is to determine what stock to buy and at what price, there are two basic methodologies.
Technical Analysis:

Technical Analysis maintains that all information is reflected already in the stock price. Trends are user friendly and sentiment changes predate and predict trend changes. Investors’ responses to price movements lead to recognizable price chart patterns. 

Technical analysis does not care what the “value” of a stock is. Their price predictions are only extrapolations from historical price patterns.
Fundamental Analysis:

Fundamental Analysis maintains that markets may misprice a security in the short run but that the “correct” price will eventually be reached. Profits can be made by purchasing the mispriced security and then waiting for the market to recognize the mistake and reprice the security. This is the main methodology, investors can use any or all of these different but somewhat complementary methods for stock picking. For example, many fundamental investors use technicals for deciding entry and exit points. Many technical investors use fundamentals to limit their possible stock to good companies.
Fundamental Analysis includes:

  • Economic Analysis
  • Industry Analysis
  • Company Analysis

On the basis of these three, the intrinsic value of the shares is determined. This is considered as the true value of share. If the intrinsic value is higher than the market price, it is recommended to buy the share. If its equal to market price, hold the share and if it is less than the market price, sells the shares.