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Commodity Trading Strategies:

Commodity trading strategies are strategies for buying and selling commodity futures and options to profit from movements in price. It is important to construct a strategic plan before traders begin trading commodities and risk any capital.

Many commodity trading strategies employ technical analysis when it comes to entering and exiting risk positions in the futures and futures options markets. That said,technical analysis provides only a part of the picture component in trading. Fundamental, supply and demand analyses are also critical analytical components that help traders avoid unexpected changes in output and consumption in raw material markets.

Using these tools, we can develop strategies that we test through simulations over time will allow a potential trader to understand risk and reward, as well as the volatile nature of markets. Many commodity trading strategies revolve around either a range trading or breakout methodology. Each type of strategy has pros and cons, so it is up to the individual trader to choose which type of strategy might work best.

Range Trading Strategy

Range trading in commodities simply means attempting to make purchases near the bottom end of a range (support) and selling at the top of that range (resistance). The success of this strategy depends on the ability to buy a commodity after selling makes the price fall to an oversold condition. Oversold means that the market has absorbed all selling and buying is likely to emerge. Conversely, one might look to sell a commodity after a long rally that makes the price rise to an overbought condition where the buying declines and selling emerges.

There are numerous indicators which measure overbought and oversold levels like the Relative Strength Index, Stochastic, Momentum, and Rate of Change metrics. These strategies work well when the market has no definable and consistent trend. However, it is possible that markets can remain in an overbought or oversold province for long periods of time. The risk of range trading is that the market moves below technical support or above resistance. 
Trading Breakouts
A strategy centered on trading breakouts in the world of commodities means that a trader will look to buy a commodity as it makes new highs or look to sell a commodity as it makes new lows. New highs and lows can easily be spotted on a chart, as they are the peaks and troughs of previous moves. Many professional traders use these techniques when they are managing large sums of money and looking for a major trend to develop. Commodities are volatile instruments and it is not uncommon for them to double or half in price or more over relatively short time spans.

The philosophy for this strategy is simple: A market cannot continue its trend without making new highs or new lows. This strategy works best when trends are strong and long-lasting. It does not matter whether a trend is up or down, as the trader is buying new highs and selling (shorting) at new lows. One critical drawback of this strategy is that it performs poorly when markets are not able to establish strong trends and trade in ranges.

Fundamental Trading Strategy
While trading breakouts or ranges usually have specific rules as to when to buy and sell, fundamental trading depends on factors that will affect supply and demand for the commodity in question.  On the other hand, one might expect demand to increase for crude oil from China, leading to a long position in oil futures.

Traders and investors that are new to the markets tend to have difficulty with fundamental trading as it involves a tremendous amount of work and number crunching. Moreover, fundamental positions usually need more time and patience and require more risk because developments can take a long time to make known.


Saturday, 8 December 2018

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Crude oil Futures: Risks and Rewards

Trading crude oil futures uses a high degree of leverage. It is possible for those who trade crude oil futures to make and lose substantial amounts of money in a very short period of time. The price of crude oil is notorious for its volatility. It can easily move 5 to 10% in a single trading session. Crude is especially sensitive to breaking political and economic news, as well as to weekly storage and production reports.

Trading oil futures entails a substantial amount of risk. Investors may need to meet a margin call if a position goes against them, or the position may be liquidated at a loss. However, there are some strategies that can define the amount of capital at risk. Investors who want to invest in crude oil futures should understand how they work and the risks involved.

Crude Oil Contract Specifications
A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a specific commodity or another financial instrument at a predetermined price in the future. Futures contracts are standardized, which allows them to be traded on an exchange. Some futures contracts are settled by delivery of the physical asset, and others are settled by cash according to the final price of the contract.
A crude oil futures contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil deliverable at some point in the future, depending on the contract month. A $1 move in the price of the oil contract equals $1,000. Assume an investor is long one contract of crude oil at $50. If the price of oil goes to $48, the investor will be behind $2,000 on the position.
The contracts are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) exchange. There are futures contracts on both crude oil and Brent crude oil. Both contracts are settled by physical delivery of the oil. Most investors do not want to be responsible for the physical delivery of this much crude oil. Investors must therefore pay attention to contract delivery and expiration dates. An investor should roll the position to another month or otherwise close out the position before expiration.




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Future Fundamental Strategies:

Futures traders try to predict what the value of an underlying index or commodity will be at some point in the future. Speculators in the futures market can use different strategies to take advantage of rising and declining prices. The most basic are known as going long, going short and spread trading. 

Long and Short Trades

Trades can be entered in two different directions, depending on where traders expect the market to go.
Long trades are the classic method of buying with the intention of profiting from a rising market. Even though losses could be substantial, they are considered limited because price can only go as low as $0 if the trade moves against them.

Short trades, on the other hand, are entered with the intention of profiting from a falling market. Once price reaches their target level, they buy back the shares (buy to cover) to replace what they originally borrowed from their broker. Trading short positions is an important part of active trading because it allows them to take advantage of both rising and falling markets – but it takes extra caution.

Unlike long trades, where losses are considered limited because price can’t go below $0, short trades have the potential for unlimited losses. That’s because a short trade loses value as the market rises, and since price can theoretically continue rising indefinitely, losses can be unlimited – and catastrophic. Traders can manage this risk by always trading with a protective stop loss order– a line in the sand beyond which they won’t risk any more money. Whether they go long or short, we must have a large enough balance in their trading account to meet the initial margin requirement for the particular contract.




Sunday, 25 November 2018

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Day Trading- Long or Short

Day Trading is one the hardest things to succeed in stock market. One of the tools is using filters. Filters are used to determine which side of the market we should trade from the long side or the shortside.

4 Different Methods to acquire a Day Trading Bias

Prior Day High/Low - If the price is above prior day high then the bias is long. If price is below prior day low then the bias is short.

Opening Range - If price is below the first 15mins or 30 mins then price is considered weak and if price is above the opening range then it is considered strong. This is not as strong a filter as when using Prior Day High/Low

Moving Average – Trader use Moving Averages a lot. They use them to determine the trend and in this is case they do the same. If the trend is down then their bias is short and if the trend is up their bias is long.

Phase Analysis - This is just like Moving Average, something we practically use for every strategy. When market is in a phase 2 then our bias is long and when market is in a phase 4 we can go for short.


Thursday, 22 November 2018

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List of Volatile Options Trading Strategies

Here list of the volatile options trading strategies that are most commonly used by options traders.
It's one of the simplest volatile strategies and perfectly suitable for beginners. Two transactions are involved and it creates a debit spread.
This is a very similar strategy to the long straddle, but has a lower upfront cost. It's also suitable for beginners.
This is best used when your outlook is volatile but trader thinks a fall in price is the most likely. It's simple, involves two transactions to create a debit spread, and is suitable for beginners.
This is basically a cheaper alternative to the strip straddle. It also involves two transactions and is well suited for beginners.
Traders would use this when their outlook is volatile but traders believe that a rise in price is the most likely. It is another simple strategy that is suitable for beginners.
The strap strangle is essentially a lower cost alternative to the strap saddle. This simple strategy involves two transactions and is suitable for beginners.
This is a simple, but relatively expensive, strategy that is suitable for beginners. Two transactions are involved to create a debit spread.
This more complicated strategy is suitable for when their outlook is volatile but you think a price rise is more likely than a price fall. Two transactions are used to create a credit spread and it is not recommended for beginners.
This is a slightly complex strategy that we would use if your outlook is volatile but trader favor a price fall over a price rise. A credit spread is created using two transactions and it is not suitable for beginners.
This is an advanced strategy that involves two transactions. It creates a credit spread and is not recommended for beginners.
This is an advanced strategy that is not suitable for beginners. It involves two transactions and creates a credit spread.
This complex strategy involves three transactions and creates a credit spread. It isn't suitable for beginners.
This advanced strategy involves four transactions. A credit spread is created and it isn't suitable for beginners.
This is a complex trading strategy that involves four transactions to create a credit spread. It isn't recommended for beginners.
There are four transactions involved in this, which create a debit spread. It's complex and not recommended for beginners.
This advanced strategy creates a debit spread and involves four transactions. It isn't suitable for beginners.
This is a complex trading strategy that is not suitable for beginners. It creates a debit spread using four transactions.



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Volatile Options Trading Strategies
Options trading have two advantages over almost every other form of trading. One is the ability to generate profits when we predict a financial instrument will be relatively stable in price, and the second is the ability to make money when we believe that a financial instrument is volatile.
When a stock or another security is volatile it means that a large price swing is likely, but it's difficult to predict in which direction. By using volatile options trading strategies, it's possible to make trades where we will profit providing an underlying security moves significantly in price, regardless of which direction it moves in.
There are many scenarios that can lead to a financial instrument being volatile. For example, a company may be about to release its financial reports or announce some other big news, either of which probably lead to its stock being volatile. Rumors of an impending takeover could have the same effect. There are usually plenty of opportunities to make profits through using volatile options trading strategies.

What are Volatile Options Trading Strategies?

Volatile options trading strategies are designed specifically to make profits from stocks or other securities that are likely to experience a dramatic price movement, without having to predict in which direction that price movement will be. Given that making a judgment about which direction the price of a volatile security will move in is very difficult, it's clear why such they can be useful.
There are also known as dual directional strategies, because they can make profits from price movements in either direction. The basic principle of using them is that we combine multiple positions that have unlimited potential profits but limited losses so that we will make a profit providing the underlying security moves far in enough in one direction or the other.
Buying call options- long call has limited losses, the amount we spend on them, but unlimited potential gains as we can make as much as price of the underlying security goes up by. Buying put options- long put also has limited losses and almost unlimited gains. The potential gains are limited only by the amount which the price of the underlying security can fall by (i.e. its full value).
By combining these two positions together into one overall position, we should make a return whichever direction the underlying security moves in. The idea is that if the underlying security goes up, we make more profit from the long call than we lose from the long put. If the underlying security goes down, then we make more profit from the long put than we lose from the long call.
This isn't without its risks. If the price of the underlying security goes up, but not by enough to make the long call profits greater than the long put losses, then we will lose money. Equally, if the price of the underlying security goes down, but not by enough so the long put profits are greater than the long call losses, then we will also lose money.
Basically, small price moves aren't enough to make profits from this, or any other, volatile strategy. To reiterate, strategies of this type should only be used when we are expecting an underlying security to move significantly in price.

Wednesday, 7 November 2018

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List of Bearish Option Strategies:
The below bearish option categories are most commonly used strategies that are appropriate for a bearish outlook.
This is a single position strategy that involves only one transaction. It is suitable for beginners and comes with a straight cost.
Only one transaction is required for this single position strategy, and it fabricates a straight credit. It is not suitable for beginners.
This simple strategy is perfectly suitable for beginners. It involves two transactions, which are combined to create a debit spread.
This is relatively straightforward strategy, but it necessitates a high trading level so it isn't really suitable for beginners. A credit spread is created using two transactions.
This is complex and not suitable for beginners. It requires two transactions and can create either a debit spread or credit spread, depending on the ratio of options bought to options written.
This is fairly complicated and not ideal for beginners. A credit spread is created and two transactions are involved.
The bear butterfly spread has two variations:
i)                   Call bear butterfly spread
ii)                Put bear butterfly spread.
It's not suitable for beginners; it entails three transactions and creates a debit spread.
This requires three transactions to create a debit spread. It is not suitable for beginners due to its complexities.


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