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Why is Stock Chart Technical Analysis Important?


When analysis comes to investing in stocks, it is important that the investor is capable of conducting a thorough technical analysis of stock charts. Technical analysis is a term used to define the process of predicting future price movements based on the past price movements within stock charts. It is acting with the help of technical analysis that traders are able to make financial decisions of buy or sell stocks. Even though technical analysis doesn’t make accurate predictions, it helps trader to predict the future. If trader is willing to invest in a stock, they will first select a stock and analyze its past price fluctuations to see whether it will tender successful results in the future or not.

Past and Current Stock Price Prediction
The principle of technical analysis is to help the investor to make a more financially sound investment decision. The price is the key to success in stock market investment. The supply and demand of stocks all depend upon technical analysis. By estimating the history of stock prices, trader gets a future reading of what a particular stock would be priced at.
When analyzing the stock charts, trader can create price charts that help decide their next move. With the help of technical analysis, traders are able to identify the following factors:
§  Volatility in the stock prices in the past and present.
§  Stock’s capability and value compared to the overall market
§  Price fluctuations and stock value before and after important events.
§  History of volume and trading levels.
Easily Identify Support and Resistance Levels
By executing stock chart technical analysis, investors are able to predict support and resistance levels. These levels find the periods of congestion in a stock chart where the prices of stocks fluctuate within a limited range for a long period of time.
When traders are able to identify support and resistance levels, traders can make better conclusion whether to invest in a particular stock or not. When prices break the obstruction, it means that the supply and demand are in a good position.
Helps Time Entry Points
Another benefit of stock chart technical analysis is that it helps investors’ time entry points. With the help of technical analysis, investors know exactly when to time their accomplishment. Investors are also able to understand demand and supply levels, and breakouts to make better decisions. Buying close to support levels or a breakout above resistance helps to investors earn greater returns on their investment.
Easily Spot Trends
If traders want to invest in stocks, they must be well attentive of the current market trends. By conducting technical analysis of stock charts, investors will be able to gain the knowledge about short term and long term trends which will help traders to take informed investment decisions.
 In order to invest in stocks, traders must be attentive of the historical and current stock trends and price fluctuations. And with the help of technical analysis, you get all the information investors need to make a perfect decision that doesn’t make their lose money.


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Financial Ratios
There are a number of widely used financial ratios that can be used to help investors gauge valuation and assess how a company stacks up against its peers. These ratios are standard on broker platforms as well as most popular search engines. Just as with technical analysis, financial analysis should be performed using multiple financial ratios to help paint a clearer picture of the operations.

Price-Earnings (P/E) is perhaps the most commonly used financial ratio. It measures the profitability of the company relative to the share price. All sectors have an average P/E, which can be found quickly by looking up the heaviest traded exchange-traded-funds (ETF) which track the specific index. This ratio can be used to compare a specific company with the industry, peers and or benchmark indices. For example, if the consumer discretionary sector has a P/E of 20 and your stock has a P/E of 55, it may be overvalued. Some sectors traditionally have higher P/Es than others, like technology compared to utilities. The S&P 500 has a historical P/E ratio of 21. Keep in mind that a company needs to generate profits in order to have a P/E. There are more ratios that can be used in the absence of profits.

Price-Sales (P/S) and Price-Book (P/B) are comparative valuation ratios that indicate if a stock is trading at a premium or discount compared to its peers and sector/industry. If a stock is trading at a very deep discount like .3 P/S compared to industry average of 2.5 P/S, then there could be an inherent structural problem with the business or could be overlooked by Wall Street and presents an undervalued investment situation and warrants further investigation.

Cash-Per-Share (CPS) and Book Value (BV) are two valuation ratios that can help determine if the stock has been overly punished by investors. When a company trades under the CPS or BV, it has virtually valued the business operations at zero presenting either a very undervalued situation or potential bankruptcy. The cash burn rate and debt should also be investigated. Biotech stocks are notorious for these situations. These ratios don’t apply well to financials like banks and insurance companies that tend to trade at or below CPS and BV, due to federal banking regulations and off balance sheet entities.


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Basics of Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis requires information provided by the company to develop a thesis about the business. These are some of the factors that should be included in the thesis.
Understand a Company’s Real Value
Observation is reality in the financial markets. Different investors and analysts will have differing valuations for a company. However, the continued declining sales forecasts caused the sector to drop, when the earnings reports revealed even larger revenue declines, as discernment shifted negative again.

Outlook Influences Discernment
The markets are the ultimate arbitrator and adjudicators as to which valuation pricing prevails and when. Outlook influences discernment, which is why stocks tend to overshoot their valuations in strong bullish markets and undershoots during weak bearish markets, fundamental analysts will work to develop their own valuation models using specialized metrics to calibrate them to any mechanisms. Companies can be valued based on financial metrics as well as assets that may not be efficiently priced in. The parts are worth more than the whole is a common validation for under valuation, which assumes that the company may follow up or sell certain assets to improve shareholder equity.

Reading Financial Statements
Publicly traded companies are required to file financial statements with the United Stated Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Investors can access this information directly from the SEC through the EDGAR database.
Quarterly earnings are initially revealed and filed as a 10-K document afterwards. Companies will usually pair the earnings release with a conference call an hour afterwards or the next morning. The conference call can be very disclosing, especially future earnings guidance estimates which may be increased or decrease from consensus analyst estimates, regulatory issues, impending proceedings and most important indenture wins or loses, which can result in significant share price volatility

Understanding Industry Trends
Stocks are segmented by sector and industry. To determine the true performance of a stock, it should be evaluated amongst its competitors within the industry. When a particular sector or industry is very strong, it tends to lift most of the companies within. The privileges in the particular industry usually establish the industry trend. Therefore, it is cautious to continue alongside each other of the industry trends for the particular stocks. The performance of the industry leaders sets the outlook with the group. When a leading stock in the heavy machinery industry lacerates its earnings guidance, it generates a top-down undulation effect for the examiner stocks as well. It is guilt by association until demonstrated otherwise as share prices sell-off.

 Accounting for Company Growth
There are two types of accounting that is used with earnings reports. The official numbers are reported under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which take into account all expenditure items including non-cash compensation like restricted stock and options. Companies like to also provide non-GAAP numbers, which excludes non-cash items. The purpose is to allow shareholders to better estimate the growth of the core business without being sidetracked by factors that doesn’t affect cash flow. However, opponents argue that non-GAAP accounting is misleading. Any and all compensation must be accounted for especially when existing shareholders face further strength in shareholder equity.


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Importance of Technical Analysis:

Technical analysis is increasing popularity worldwide. Here are some of the reasons why it is so important to the analysis of financial markets: 

MATHEMATICAL APPROACH:

Technical analysts use probability to pick stocks. By using probability, they are able to predict the outcome of an action without necessarily needing to scrutinize it. So, technical analysis predicts that how prices are going to move without requiring bothering that will cause the price to move. It is much quicker and less difficult than fundamental analysis.

SIGNS OF UPCOMING RISK:

Sometimes, a main fall in stock prices is just around the corner but nobody can see it coming. Fundamental analysis tools are unable to predict it. However, by using historical chart patterns and other technical tools, one can predict the fall. Now generally, technical analysis cannot predict the reason for the fall, but it can predict that it is about to come. However, technical analysts predicted beforehand that markets are about to enter one of the biggest falls ever.

IDENTIFICATION OF SHORT-TERM TRENDS:

Fundamental analysis is more relevant for investors who want to invest for a long period of say three to five years or more. This is because any profitable business model takes time to be successful. This is not so with technical analysis. Eventually, the success of a stock depends on the company’s profitability. This cannot be predicted by technical analysis. It can only predict whether the stock is going to move up or down in the near future. In the short term, however, fundamental factors can only have a small effect on prices. In such cases, technical analysis presents a clearer identification.


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Importance of Technical Analysis:

Technical analysis is increasing popularity worldwide. Here are some of the reasons why it is so important to the analysis of financial markets: 

MATHEMATICAL APPROACH:

Technical analysts use probability to pick stocks. By using probability, they are able to predict the outcome of an action without necessarily needing to scrutinize it in great detail. So, technical analysis predicts that how prices are going to move without requiring bothering that will cause the price to move. It is much quicker and less difficult than fundamental analysis.

SIGNS OF UPCOMING RISK:

Sometimes, a main fall in stock prices is just around the corner but nobody can see it coming. Fundamental analysis tools are unable to predict it. However, by using historical chart patterns and other technical tools, one can predict the fall. Now generally, technical analysis cannot predict the reason for the fall, but it can predict that it is about to come. However, technical analysts predicted beforehand that markets are about to enter one of the biggest falls ever.

IDENTIFICATION OF SHORT-TERM TRENDS:

Fundamental analysis is more relevant for investors who want to invest for a long period of say three to five years or more. This is because any profitable business model takes time to be successful. So, investors too have to remain patient. This is not so with technical analysis. Eventually, the success of a stock depends on the company’s profitability. This cannot be predicted by technical analysis. It can only predict whether the stock is going to move up or down in the near future. In the short term, however, fundamental factors can only have a small effect on prices. In such cases, technical analysis presents a clearer identification.


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Technical indicators are used to identify market trends and predict future stock prices. 



They are:

CHARTS:

Price and volume charts are the most representative tools that are used as technical indicators for technical analysis. A volume chart represents the number of shares of a company that were bought and sold in the market during a day. 

For the principle of technical analysis, we may choose one of the conventional line or bar charts, or alternatively, use a candlestick chart. A candlestick chart is a special kind of chart that is particularly relevant for technical analysis. It is in the form of a series of consecutive candles. Charts are used together with trend lines. Trend lines are used to indicate the direction of movement of a stock over a period of time.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:

Momentum indicators are statistical stature that are calculated based on price and volume data of stocks. These technical indicators act as supporting tools to charts and moving averages.
Some momentum indicators are signs that occur before the price move we expected occurs. They substantiate that the price is certainly going to move as we thought it would. These are called leading indicators. Other signs come after the stock has started moving in a particular direction. They are called lagging indicators. They corroborate that the stock will continue moving in this direction. Indicators are also used together with moving averages. For example, when a stock price moves in such a way that it starts falling within a moving average, it is an assenting sign that it will continue to move as expected. This is called a crossover. Other momentum indicators include moving average convergence divergence (MACD), accumulation/distribution line.

MOVING AVERAGES:

Moving averages are calculated to remove sharp, frequent fluctuations in a stock chart. From the time to time, stock prices can move very sharply in a small period of time. This formulates it rigid to determine a trend in the stock chart. To remove the impact of this, and make a trend more important, an average of a few days price is calculated. For example, if a five day pattern of a stock’s price is Rs.49, 54, 46, 48 and 51, it is difficult to find the direction in which prices have actually moved. However, if we can calculate the average of these prices and compare them with the average of the next five days and the previous five days, we can determine a broad trend.  This kind of moving average is called simple moving average (SMA). Other generally used moving average concepts are exponential moving average (EMA) and linear weighted average (LWA)

Saturday, 29 September 2018

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Fundamentals of Technical Analysis:

In order to make use of technical analysis for predicting stock prices, we have to presume that there is some relationship between historical chart patterns and future stock prices. In this way we can use historical data to predict future prices. There are three fundamental hypotheses in the technical analysis of stocks. 

They are:

MARKET PRICES REFLECT ALL THE INFORMATION ABOUT A STOCK:

Fundamental Analysis anxiety itself with financial and other information about a stock. Technical analysis of stocks, though completely separated from fundamental analysis, works on a similar basis. Technical Indicators actually indicates use this information when making buy or sell decisions. This information subsequently gets reflected in the stock’s price and ultimately the stock chart..

PATTERNS TEND TO REPEAT THEMSELVES:

The chart pattern that validates a technical analysis is that trends are repetitive. In other words, suppose a stock chart moves in a hypothetical pattern. Based on technical analysis, in this way to tell where the price will go next by simply looking at a chart.

STOCK PRICES FOLLOW TRENDS:

Technical analysis of stocks is based on the idea that each stock chart has its own unique trend. Prices move only within this trend. Every move in the stock price will indicate the next move.

Similarly, even for stock charts, we know the trend from past experiences. Basically, the move in either direction may be larger or smaller than before. However, the pattern of these charts will not change dramatically.



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